Carnie Freak Show at O'Sheas
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Mesquite Casino in Deep Trouble
Anybody who's read some of my previous posts know I have a certain affection for the city of Mesquite, NV, up on Interstate 15 near the Utah state line. A charming small town, it got caught up big time in the real estate boom, and consequently has really taken it on the chin recently. The three big casinos in town are owned by one company, Black Gaming, which closed the Oasis Casino a few months ago in a cost cutting move. However, now it looks like Black Gaming is going to lose the casino, hotel, etc. for good. Too bad.
Black Gaming Misses Interest Payment on Oasis Casino
Black Gaming Misses Interest Payment on Oasis Casino
Thursday, December 18, 2008
I Told You So
Well, maybe. Here's an article that restates what I've been saying about Las Vegas, especially the Strip properties, for the last couple of years: that they've lost sight of their core (and somewhat exclusive) business (gaming), and have been developing and promoting all sorts of bilious nonsense that almost everybody else does better:
Bradley Theory of Casino Revenues
There's one glitch to this theory, though, at least as I see it. The Downtown casinos have, probably because of physical and financial restraints, stuck to their gambling as the main source of income, and they are feeling the pinch of the bad economy also. The reasons may be the fact that relentless marketing on the part of the Strip casinos has hurt the Downtown area of the years, and also the skewing of the average Downtown casino customer towards a more blue-collar type, who is certainly pinched by the downturn.
But then again, I may be right.
Bradley Theory of Casino Revenues
There's one glitch to this theory, though, at least as I see it. The Downtown casinos have, probably because of physical and financial restraints, stuck to their gambling as the main source of income, and they are feeling the pinch of the bad economy also. The reasons may be the fact that relentless marketing on the part of the Strip casinos has hurt the Downtown area of the years, and also the skewing of the average Downtown casino customer towards a more blue-collar type, who is certainly pinched by the downturn.
But then again, I may be right.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
More Opinion - Online Poker
I just finished reading Anthony Holden's 'Big Deal', a book which I would recommend to anybody, just because he's such an outstanding writer. He has a real appreciation for life in general, and poker in particular, and writes with a style that makes it difficult to put the book down. I wish I could write half as well as Tony Holden.
The book chronicles a year that he spent as a 'Poker Pro'. He left the life of writer and biographer to step up from the ranks of an accomplished amateur, to ply his skills and luck on what was at that time the poker 'circuit'. Now this was in the early '80s, when online poker did not exist, and the biggest poker 'event' in the world, the World Series of Poker, attracted less than 200 entrants (compared with over 9000 in 2007). Many of the poker 'pioneers', such as Amarillo Slim and Johnny Moss were still active regular competitors.
Then, as now, most of the money was actually made in cash games on the fringes of the tournaments. Although the allure of huge tournament prizes attracted most pros, the real action was in the cash 'side games'.
They plied their skills against one another, taking the occasional amateur to the cleaners, but they were constantly trying to improve their standing against one another. The money was important, of course, but the best players of the time admitted that having the mental attitude of playing for the money alone could actually be a handicap.
Today's online poker arena, by contrast, can probably be best described as mostly predators waiting for the occasional 'fish' to swim by so that they can pick his carcass clean.
Go to online forums such as those at twoplustwo.com, and you can hear these jackasses lamenting the fact that there are too many of their ilk lurking on the poker sites, and not enough 'fish' to make a decent living. These people measure their skill only by the amounts of money they have claim to won.
What's really ironic is that these pathetic losers would probably get their clocks cleaned in a 'live' game at a brick and mortar casino or card club, where they would be the fish without the sophisticated software that virtually all of them use to track other players' habits, etc., online. This gives them a huge advantage over those that don't use the software. The kind of information the software provides is, for example, the percentage of times a player may call, bet, and/or raise before and after the flop, etc. For one player to use this information against another who does not have access to it is, in a word, cheating.
The internet can be a wonderful thing, but the perception of anonymity has created an environment in which the most coarse and crude among us are not only allowed to behave in ways that would not be conceivable in person, but this gross behavior has actually become so common that to many it is acceptable.
The book chronicles a year that he spent as a 'Poker Pro'. He left the life of writer and biographer to step up from the ranks of an accomplished amateur, to ply his skills and luck on what was at that time the poker 'circuit'. Now this was in the early '80s, when online poker did not exist, and the biggest poker 'event' in the world, the World Series of Poker, attracted less than 200 entrants (compared with over 9000 in 2007). Many of the poker 'pioneers', such as Amarillo Slim and Johnny Moss were still active regular competitors.
Then, as now, most of the money was actually made in cash games on the fringes of the tournaments. Although the allure of huge tournament prizes attracted most pros, the real action was in the cash 'side games'.
They plied their skills against one another, taking the occasional amateur to the cleaners, but they were constantly trying to improve their standing against one another. The money was important, of course, but the best players of the time admitted that having the mental attitude of playing for the money alone could actually be a handicap.
Today's online poker arena, by contrast, can probably be best described as mostly predators waiting for the occasional 'fish' to swim by so that they can pick his carcass clean.
Go to online forums such as those at twoplustwo.com, and you can hear these jackasses lamenting the fact that there are too many of their ilk lurking on the poker sites, and not enough 'fish' to make a decent living. These people measure their skill only by the amounts of money they have claim to won.
What's really ironic is that these pathetic losers would probably get their clocks cleaned in a 'live' game at a brick and mortar casino or card club, where they would be the fish without the sophisticated software that virtually all of them use to track other players' habits, etc., online. This gives them a huge advantage over those that don't use the software. The kind of information the software provides is, for example, the percentage of times a player may call, bet, and/or raise before and after the flop, etc. For one player to use this information against another who does not have access to it is, in a word, cheating.
The internet can be a wonderful thing, but the perception of anonymity has created an environment in which the most coarse and crude among us are not only allowed to behave in ways that would not be conceivable in person, but this gross behavior has actually become so common that to many it is acceptable.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Little Mesquite Falling on Hard Times
Way up on Interstate 15, just this side of the Utah state line, is Mesquite, Nevada. I have to admit it has been a couple of years since I was there last, actually scouting retirement possibilities for my mom and older sister. Over the year or so that I visited, shortly before the real estate bubble burst, there seemed to be more homes and condos under construction, than were there in the first place. We went to one condo complex that had just been built, to look at the 'model' for the next complex, to be built next door; there was just a dusty field where the new one was going to be erected. I signed my mom up at the end of a long list of people to be notified when building began. When asked for an estimate of when the new complex would begin construction, the sales rep said, 'When we can find enough construction workers.' That was how it was just a couple of years ago. The town was booming; they had completed a new, extensive medical complex there (prior to that there was no real hospital), to attract more retirees to move there and enjoy their many golf courses.
There are also three large (and several small) casinos in Mesquite, the three large ones being owned by the same company. When I stayed there, it was always at the Oasis, mostly because it was convenient. The hotel is large, the casino medium-sized by Las Vegas standards, but has a small town feel, with a lot of regulars, mostly seniors.
I like Mesquite because it still has the Nevada desert ambience, without the high-octane Vegas rush, and certainly without the crime.
Therefore I was sad to read that Mesquite, like most of Nevada, is falling on hard times:
Mesquite Casino to Close
There are also three large (and several small) casinos in Mesquite, the three large ones being owned by the same company. When I stayed there, it was always at the Oasis, mostly because it was convenient. The hotel is large, the casino medium-sized by Las Vegas standards, but has a small town feel, with a lot of regulars, mostly seniors.
I like Mesquite because it still has the Nevada desert ambience, without the high-octane Vegas rush, and certainly without the crime.
Therefore I was sad to read that Mesquite, like most of Nevada, is falling on hard times:
Mesquite Casino to Close
Thursday, November 27, 2008
More Opinion - Online Poker
My attitude towards online gaming in general, and online poker in particular, has morphed from mildly negative to ambivalent.
My experience is mostly in live blackjack, and anyone who's played in a casino with even reasonable skill (knowing basic strategy), will witness countless shlubs throwing their money away. Some of these people are just in the casino to have a 'good time', and they look at their losses as the price they pay for the entertainment. It just hurts me to see this, because the casinos count on the clueless to make their money.
In poker, both online and live, the same situation occurs, maybe not to the same extent, but there certainly seem to be a lot of people that don't know really basic principles that are eager to part with their money. Like the bunch of college guys getting drunk at the poker tables at Hooters; they are there mainly to have fun. The big difference between the clueless at the blackjack tables, and the clueless at poker, is, of course, that it's not the casino that profits from bad players at poker, but the other players at the table.
Not that the casinos shouldn't make any money; they get their 'rake' no matter if the players are good or bad.
The thing with brick and mortar casinos is that they can be counted on to be honest. However, I'm still doubtful, despite what some of the 'experts' say, as to the honesty of the online sites.
Witness:
How Online Gamblers Unmasked Cheaters
My experience is mostly in live blackjack, and anyone who's played in a casino with even reasonable skill (knowing basic strategy), will witness countless shlubs throwing their money away. Some of these people are just in the casino to have a 'good time', and they look at their losses as the price they pay for the entertainment. It just hurts me to see this, because the casinos count on the clueless to make their money.
In poker, both online and live, the same situation occurs, maybe not to the same extent, but there certainly seem to be a lot of people that don't know really basic principles that are eager to part with their money. Like the bunch of college guys getting drunk at the poker tables at Hooters; they are there mainly to have fun. The big difference between the clueless at the blackjack tables, and the clueless at poker, is, of course, that it's not the casino that profits from bad players at poker, but the other players at the table.
Not that the casinos shouldn't make any money; they get their 'rake' no matter if the players are good or bad.
The thing with brick and mortar casinos is that they can be counted on to be honest. However, I'm still doubtful, despite what some of the 'experts' say, as to the honesty of the online sites.
Witness:
How Online Gamblers Unmasked Cheaters
Friday, October 31, 2008
Politics of Gaming
Part of the fun of following events in Las Vegas, especially the controversial ones, is to dig out the real facts 'behind the headlines'. This usually reveals the real motives behind the actions, which may or may not be apparent at first blush.
I don't talk politics on this blog, but I like to see who's paying whom to do what, especially when gaming and politians are involved.
For example, back in my home city of Milwaukee, a certain Indian tribe was given the right to operate a 'bingo hall' about 20 years ago. The State of Wisconsin would decide what and how many games the tribe could have. For some reason, the governor was given exclusive power to negotiate with the tribe (and all the other Indian casinos in the state). Over the last 20 years, the Milwaukee casino has donated huge sums of money to gubernatorial campaign funds, and, guess what, the casinos, especially the one in Milwaukee, were allowed to grow from humble bingo parlors to full blown Vegas style casinos. What really made this arrangement outrageous was the fact that, during the last gubernatorial election cycle, the Milwaukee tribe reportedly donated millions(!) of dollars to a particular candidate, who, after being re-elected, gave that tribe an exclusive pact to be the only casino within 50 miles of Milwaukee. There were other tribes looking to get into the Milwaukee market, but they are now shut out of it.
But I digress. I ran across the following article, and at first, was expecting the usual blab about casino suits spreading their money around expecting to get some political favors. However, even though it documents the fact that Vegas casino operators are putting more money on McCain than Obama, it doesn't really say why. If these donators really believe that neither candidate would make any gaming legislation a priority, why do it at all? And why more for McCain? Any ideas?
Vegas and the Presidential Election
I don't talk politics on this blog, but I like to see who's paying whom to do what, especially when gaming and politians are involved.
For example, back in my home city of Milwaukee, a certain Indian tribe was given the right to operate a 'bingo hall' about 20 years ago. The State of Wisconsin would decide what and how many games the tribe could have. For some reason, the governor was given exclusive power to negotiate with the tribe (and all the other Indian casinos in the state). Over the last 20 years, the Milwaukee casino has donated huge sums of money to gubernatorial campaign funds, and, guess what, the casinos, especially the one in Milwaukee, were allowed to grow from humble bingo parlors to full blown Vegas style casinos. What really made this arrangement outrageous was the fact that, during the last gubernatorial election cycle, the Milwaukee tribe reportedly donated millions(!) of dollars to a particular candidate, who, after being re-elected, gave that tribe an exclusive pact to be the only casino within 50 miles of Milwaukee. There were other tribes looking to get into the Milwaukee market, but they are now shut out of it.
But I digress. I ran across the following article, and at first, was expecting the usual blab about casino suits spreading their money around expecting to get some political favors. However, even though it documents the fact that Vegas casino operators are putting more money on McCain than Obama, it doesn't really say why. If these donators really believe that neither candidate would make any gaming legislation a priority, why do it at all? And why more for McCain? Any ideas?
Vegas and the Presidential Election
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Fremont East District
Well, I finally got some photos of the Fremont East District. For those of you that don't know, it's the couple of blocks on Fremont Street, east of Las Vegas Boulevard. Formerly, the Fremont Street 'area' ended there, at the east end of Neonopolis. A block east of Las Vegas Boulevard is the El Cortez Hotel and Casino, and a couple of blocks further is the Western Hotel and Casino. East of there are many derelict and defunct old motels. You can see photos of many of them on my web site at:
Old Motels of Las Vegas
Before this new development, however, the area east of LV Blvd. was considered 'dangerous', especially at night. That was the perception, anyways. The City of Las Vegas decided to spif up the area, and, among other things, came up with some original 'retro', signage. Unfortunately, for now, there are a lot of vacancies, and one solid new development, the Griffin nightclub, with a cool neon sign (photo coming soon).
In any case, here are some daytime photos of the new signage. I'll post some of the night views soon.
PLUG: You can always see oodles of Vegas photos at my website:
Neon Street Images, Fantastic Photos of a Fantastic Metropolis
This is the view of the 'Gateway', looking east from Las Vegas Boulevard.
Old Motels of Las Vegas
Before this new development, however, the area east of LV Blvd. was considered 'dangerous', especially at night. That was the perception, anyways. The City of Las Vegas decided to spif up the area, and, among other things, came up with some original 'retro', signage. Unfortunately, for now, there are a lot of vacancies, and one solid new development, the Griffin nightclub, with a cool neon sign (photo coming soon).
In any case, here are some daytime photos of the new signage. I'll post some of the night views soon.
PLUG: You can always see oodles of Vegas photos at my website:
Neon Street Images, Fantastic Photos of a Fantastic Metropolis
This is the view of the 'Gateway', looking east from Las Vegas Boulevard.
Ok, One More Post About the Crappy Vegas Economy, and I'll Shup Up.
I mean it.
This is one of the best analysis I've read to date on the Las Vegas economy. Many good points. One being that the casinos that survive will have less competition because a lot of projects (potential competitors) will have been delayed or cancelled.
What We Can Expect and Whom To Blame In Las Vegas
I promise no more posts on the Economy. As least for now.
This is one of the best analysis I've read to date on the Las Vegas economy. Many good points. One being that the casinos that survive will have less competition because a lot of projects (potential competitors) will have been delayed or cancelled.
What We Can Expect and Whom To Blame In Las Vegas
I promise no more posts on the Economy. As least for now.
Nevada Economy Dead Last In US
In my many years of coming to Las Vegas, I've never considered my visits as contributing to the economy. Besides the fact that I try to take away more money than I leave, I also spend some time in trying to get the best deals I can when it comes to lodging, etc. I don't subscibe to the "let's spend a lot of money in Vegas and have a good time" ethic. I don't spread a lot of money around in order to impress anyone. In fact, if cheapskates like myself were the only clients Vegas had, it would not exist as it does today.
However, I'm in the minority. Yeah, most people try to get the best deals, but then they take the $100. they saved on that 3-night stay and blow it in 2 minutes on a bad bet at roulette.
So Vegas relies on the endless march of rubes into its maw.
Today, though, 'because of the economy', that march has slowed. Witness this headline:
Nevada Economy Worst in US
This isn't from gambling in the casinos. It's from gambling in the housing market.
However, I'm in the minority. Yeah, most people try to get the best deals, but then they take the $100. they saved on that 3-night stay and blow it in 2 minutes on a bad bet at roulette.
So Vegas relies on the endless march of rubes into its maw.
Today, though, 'because of the economy', that march has slowed. Witness this headline:
Nevada Economy Worst in US
This isn't from gambling in the casinos. It's from gambling in the housing market.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Visit Popovich Comedy Pet Theater at Miracle Mile
Last week I saw the Popovich Comedy Theater at the Miracle Mile at the 'V' Theater, Planet Hollywood (formerly Desert Passage at The Aladdin). If you like dogs and/or cats, you MUST catch this act. Trained dogs, especially those trained to do zany antics, are always good for a laugh, but Gregory Popovich has rescued ordinary 'housecats', most of which were discarded by others, and trained them to do what many would consider impossible of our feline friends.
No, this isn't Seigfried and Roy, or Lance Burton, but it is, for animal lovers anyways, extremely entertaining. And for 54 bucks, you get (practically) front row seats.
Mr. Popovich is also a highly entertaining juggler, and performs some amazing antics of his own. They also have some excellent DVD's, including one on how to train your own cat!
You can see his website here, which also features some short videos of the act:
Popovich Comedy Pet Theater
No, this isn't Seigfried and Roy, or Lance Burton, but it is, for animal lovers anyways, extremely entertaining. And for 54 bucks, you get (practically) front row seats.
Mr. Popovich is also a highly entertaining juggler, and performs some amazing antics of his own. They also have some excellent DVD's, including one on how to train your own cat!
You can see his website here, which also features some short videos of the act:
Popovich Comedy Pet Theater
Monday, September 8, 2008
More Good News For Downtown Las Vegas...
Everybody knows that I think that Downtown is the last hope for Las Vegas:
Let's All Go To The Spike!
Monday, September 1, 2008
Binions Brings Back $1 Million Dollar Display
For years I have lamented the destruction of the 'old time' Vegas in the name of progress.
Binion's new owner seems to agree, and is bringing back a Downtown tradition:
$1 Million in Cash
Binion's new owner seems to agree, and is bringing back a Downtown tradition:
$1 Million in Cash
I've Got The Horse Right Here, His Name Is Paul Revere...
Everybody but squares and rubes knows that there are big (and small) differences in the games offered by the various casinos in Vegas.
Here is a pretty good and current review of the Sports Books:
Guide to Vegas Sports Books
Check it out before putting that deuce on the hometown team.
Here is a pretty good and current review of the Sports Books:
Guide to Vegas Sports Books
Check it out before putting that deuce on the hometown team.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
A Nation Of Business Whiners
It's tough to make a living when you have to rely on the discretionary spending of others, and those 'others' decide to spend their money elsewhere. Just ask the folks in Vegas these days. Although some may argue otherwise, most of what is offered in Las Vegas is not a necessity.
But what is it with all these other businesses that are blaming 'the economy' for their poor performance, when it's clear that incompetence, stupidity, and/or laziness are really to blame?
What an excuse!
Read the newspaper or watch the financial news, and for virtually every business that is underperforming/failing/suddenly-in-bankruptcy/not-meeting-expections, the excuse is a whiny "it's the economy".
I don't have any links for this, and I don't want to post specific business names, because it would truly be unfair, given that there are so many companies that would remain unnamed, but I will post links to articles outlining the most egregious examples.
But what is it with all these other businesses that are blaming 'the economy' for their poor performance, when it's clear that incompetence, stupidity, and/or laziness are really to blame?
What an excuse!
Read the newspaper or watch the financial news, and for virtually every business that is underperforming/failing/suddenly-in-bankruptcy/not-meeting-expections, the excuse is a whiny "it's the economy".
I don't have any links for this, and I don't want to post specific business names, because it would truly be unfair, given that there are so many companies that would remain unnamed, but I will post links to articles outlining the most egregious examples.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
More Free Advice to Fix Las Vegas
The guy that wrote this item (see link) is obviously a genius. Because he agrees with me. In my post of July 6, 2008 (below), I argued that the only thing that's going to pull Las Vegas out of the current slump is for Las Vegas to get back to basics and do what it does best, and that is BE Las Vegas. No one else, not Atlantic City or the Indian casinos can do that.
Las Vegas Economic Woes May Be Due to Deemphasizing Gambling
Las Vegas Economic Woes May Be Due to Deemphasizing Gambling
Friday, July 25, 2008
My View of Online Gaming
The origin of the recent popularity of poker was when the little cameras were installed in poker tables to display all the players' hole cards to everybody (except the other players, of course). Prior to that, watching a poker game was only slightly more exciting than clipping your toenails. Suddenly almost everyone was an expert on poker strategy. But the real impetus for the poker surge was the exploitation by the gambling websites. Although they also offered 'traditional' gaming that the brick-and-mortar casinos have, poker was the primary game on most of these sites.
One of the issues I have with online gaming, especially poker, is in their marketing, which would have you believe that winning is easy, and everyone is a winner. You might say that Vegas casinos market themselves that way, too. True, but anyone who has spent an hour in a real casino will witness most everyone else there losing money. The thing that keeps them there, besides the entertainment and fun you can have losing money in a social setting, is the possibility of winning. When you are playing in an online casino, you don't see all the other hapless boobs losing their shirts at the same time, and you certainly don't have the social interaction. Or do you?
Foulmouthed Gamblers in Cyberspace!
The internet is a wonderful thing, no matter who invented it. But the perception of anonymity gives some the feeling that they can poison any online atmosphere with behavior that I doubt they would exhibit if they were in a room with real people.
Some of the comments to the above link suggest that this is just the way it is, and that if you don't like it, you should just get over it. Sorry, but crude behavior is just that, and it should be condemned, and not accepted.
Anyhoo, despite the fact that I have personally played some online blackjack (for fun, and it's pretty boring), here are my other comments on internet gaming in general:
-They can cheat you and you will never know it. (This has happened, and is happening now; there are web sites that rate online casinos for cheating and other mischief.)
-If you win, you may not get payed, or it may take a long time to get paid.
-If you win too much, you might get cut off. (This supposedly happens a lot on sports book sites.)
-The online casino may go out of business, and/or 'get busted', and/or disappear. (Try complaining to your local DA.)
-Because of current law in the US, it is a real hassle to transfer money in and out of an online casino, and may be illegal. Although a remote possibility, you could get busted, and 'everyone else is doing it' is not a reliable defense.
The next time you are thinking of playing for real money in an online casino, ask yourself: why am I doing this? Then, go to a travel website, get a plane ticket for Las Vegas, and go!
One of the issues I have with online gaming, especially poker, is in their marketing, which would have you believe that winning is easy, and everyone is a winner. You might say that Vegas casinos market themselves that way, too. True, but anyone who has spent an hour in a real casino will witness most everyone else there losing money. The thing that keeps them there, besides the entertainment and fun you can have losing money in a social setting, is the possibility of winning. When you are playing in an online casino, you don't see all the other hapless boobs losing their shirts at the same time, and you certainly don't have the social interaction. Or do you?
Foulmouthed Gamblers in Cyberspace!
The internet is a wonderful thing, no matter who invented it. But the perception of anonymity gives some the feeling that they can poison any online atmosphere with behavior that I doubt they would exhibit if they were in a room with real people.
Some of the comments to the above link suggest that this is just the way it is, and that if you don't like it, you should just get over it. Sorry, but crude behavior is just that, and it should be condemned, and not accepted.
Anyhoo, despite the fact that I have personally played some online blackjack (for fun, and it's pretty boring), here are my other comments on internet gaming in general:
-They can cheat you and you will never know it. (This has happened, and is happening now; there are web sites that rate online casinos for cheating and other mischief.)
-If you win, you may not get payed, or it may take a long time to get paid.
-If you win too much, you might get cut off. (This supposedly happens a lot on sports book sites.)
-The online casino may go out of business, and/or 'get busted', and/or disappear. (Try complaining to your local DA.)
-Because of current law in the US, it is a real hassle to transfer money in and out of an online casino, and may be illegal. Although a remote possibility, you could get busted, and 'everyone else is doing it' is not a reliable defense.
The next time you are thinking of playing for real money in an online casino, ask yourself: why am I doing this? Then, go to a travel website, get a plane ticket for Las Vegas, and go!
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Airlines Defy Prophets of Doom!
I hope I never become so jaded that I don't get a thrill out of flying into Las Vegas. If possible, I arrange my schedule so that I can fly in during the evening, which is even more dramatic to me than flying in during the day.
And I love flying. Call me a goof, but I don't mind all of the airline hassles that most people complain about.
So why is it that I seem to pick on the airlines so much? Because it's so easy! Consider: One of the silver linings to the current 'economic downturn' is that it makes people and institutions take a hard look at themselves. Most people don't get around to seriously making changes until it seems like a tragedy is about to happen, or is happening already. The airlines are no exception, and all of a sudden they seem to be doing what they should have done years ago.
(A quick lesson in Billonomics, as it applies to airlines: Jet fuel prices are up; profits are down. Services can be cut and prices raised. They know if they raise fares, say 20%, then they will fill 30% fewer seats. Some of the 'discretionary' travelers will opt to stay home. If they raise fares 40%, then they will fill only 50% of the seats they filled before the crisis. But now they will be making a profit. Trouble with this: they only need half as many planes, crews, etc., so all those people have to be 'downsized', and, the other airline may raise fares only 39%, which will make them look bad. In my opinion, airlines are less concerned about laying people off than losing market share because of pricing, even in a shrinking market.)
So this is what they are up to:
Airlines attempting to boost revenue.
Because they are petrified of substantially raising fares to the level where they could actually make a profit, they have to play this shell game. And instead of doing the 'right' thing, the airlines once again embarrass themselves. See why I like to make fun of 'em?
And I love flying. Call me a goof, but I don't mind all of the airline hassles that most people complain about.
So why is it that I seem to pick on the airlines so much? Because it's so easy! Consider: One of the silver linings to the current 'economic downturn' is that it makes people and institutions take a hard look at themselves. Most people don't get around to seriously making changes until it seems like a tragedy is about to happen, or is happening already. The airlines are no exception, and all of a sudden they seem to be doing what they should have done years ago.
(A quick lesson in Billonomics, as it applies to airlines: Jet fuel prices are up; profits are down. Services can be cut and prices raised. They know if they raise fares, say 20%, then they will fill 30% fewer seats. Some of the 'discretionary' travelers will opt to stay home. If they raise fares 40%, then they will fill only 50% of the seats they filled before the crisis. But now they will be making a profit. Trouble with this: they only need half as many planes, crews, etc., so all those people have to be 'downsized', and, the other airline may raise fares only 39%, which will make them look bad. In my opinion, airlines are less concerned about laying people off than losing market share because of pricing, even in a shrinking market.)
So this is what they are up to:
Airlines attempting to boost revenue.
Because they are petrified of substantially raising fares to the level where they could actually make a profit, they have to play this shell game. And instead of doing the 'right' thing, the airlines once again embarrass themselves. See why I like to make fun of 'em?
Monday, July 7, 2008
How To Make Money Playing Poker.
Don't play.
Don't read this if you're convinced you're going to be the next World Series of Poker winner.
Once again, the secret to winning at poker: don't play. This is because, statistically, you are going to lose.
Occasionally I read the syndicated column written by multiple World Series of Poker winner Phil Helmuth, in which he details his brilliance in crushing opponents at high stakes poker, and I'm sure many others read his column and aspire to his success. However, I have yet to read a popular column written by one of the poor rubes that was cleaned out by Phil at one of those exciting games. In fact, it's almost impossible to read anything written by anyone who loses at poker on a regular basis. Of course, most people only want to read about the winners, so that they may emulate them and/or experience their success vicariously. So a casual observer to the poker scene could come to the conclusion that there are vastly more winners at poker than losers. What a great game!
But one aspect of poker you rarely read about is that it is truly a 'zero sum' game.
That is, for every dollar won, there is a dollar lost. For every huge pot won, there is the exact same amount lost. And that's in a 'private' game.
If you play poker in a casino, you could be at table with up to 8 other people. Consider for a moment that all of the pots are equal. If you win once in 9 hands, you might think you are breaking even. However, because of the casino 'rake', you will actually be losing money. Therefore, to win, you will have to play more skillfully, and have more good luck than the other people at the table. If you are arrogant enough to think you are the only one at the table who, for whatever reason, deserves to win, YOU ARE WRONG.
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of poker websites, that offer, not only actual play against other real people, but a plethora of poker advice and knowledge that you can use to crush your opponents. Some of this 'knowledge'is free, some you have to pay for (hmm... I wonder who is winning there?). Admittedly, if you were the only one in the world that was absorbing all of this info, it might give you an edge at the tables.
But let's go back to our hypothetical 9 person poker table. Everyone starts off with the same amount of cash. After 100 hands, there will be one winner, that is, the one with the most cash. There will be someone in 'second place', someone in 'third place', etc. Again, because poker is a 'zero sum' game, most of the people will have less money than when they started. Let me repeat that: 'Most people, at the end of a poker session, will have less money than when they started.' Even if it's a private game, with no 'rake', that will be the case.
The majority of people that play poker in a casino play, not 'high stakes' poker, but "low-limit hold 'em". In every book on the subject, there is a common piece of wisdom that says that to even have a chance of leaving the table with more money than you started means that you will fold more hands than you will play through. But you still have to ante each hand.
In any case, chances are, you will not win a lot of money of money at poker. In fact, the odds are hugely in favor of your losing. This is not pessimistic loser-talk. It is a statistical fact.
If you successfully count cards at Blackjack, against a casino, you will statistically win money over a period of time. This is because the rules remain pretty much static. How much you win per hour will probably determine whether or not you will quit your day job and become a professional card counter.
If you play poker at a casino, (or in a private game), and happen to find a bunch of rubes that you can clean out on a regular basis, you may 'win' a few bucks. But the players will change. You will eventually find that you are the 'rube'. If you don't think this will happen to you, you're not alone.
Don't read this if you're convinced you're going to be the next World Series of Poker winner.
Once again, the secret to winning at poker: don't play. This is because, statistically, you are going to lose.
Occasionally I read the syndicated column written by multiple World Series of Poker winner Phil Helmuth, in which he details his brilliance in crushing opponents at high stakes poker, and I'm sure many others read his column and aspire to his success. However, I have yet to read a popular column written by one of the poor rubes that was cleaned out by Phil at one of those exciting games. In fact, it's almost impossible to read anything written by anyone who loses at poker on a regular basis. Of course, most people only want to read about the winners, so that they may emulate them and/or experience their success vicariously. So a casual observer to the poker scene could come to the conclusion that there are vastly more winners at poker than losers. What a great game!
But one aspect of poker you rarely read about is that it is truly a 'zero sum' game.
That is, for every dollar won, there is a dollar lost. For every huge pot won, there is the exact same amount lost. And that's in a 'private' game.
If you play poker in a casino, you could be at table with up to 8 other people. Consider for a moment that all of the pots are equal. If you win once in 9 hands, you might think you are breaking even. However, because of the casino 'rake', you will actually be losing money. Therefore, to win, you will have to play more skillfully, and have more good luck than the other people at the table. If you are arrogant enough to think you are the only one at the table who, for whatever reason, deserves to win, YOU ARE WRONG.
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of poker websites, that offer, not only actual play against other real people, but a plethora of poker advice and knowledge that you can use to crush your opponents. Some of this 'knowledge'is free, some you have to pay for (hmm... I wonder who is winning there?). Admittedly, if you were the only one in the world that was absorbing all of this info, it might give you an edge at the tables.
But let's go back to our hypothetical 9 person poker table. Everyone starts off with the same amount of cash. After 100 hands, there will be one winner, that is, the one with the most cash. There will be someone in 'second place', someone in 'third place', etc. Again, because poker is a 'zero sum' game, most of the people will have less money than when they started. Let me repeat that: 'Most people, at the end of a poker session, will have less money than when they started.' Even if it's a private game, with no 'rake', that will be the case.
The majority of people that play poker in a casino play, not 'high stakes' poker, but "low-limit hold 'em". In every book on the subject, there is a common piece of wisdom that says that to even have a chance of leaving the table with more money than you started means that you will fold more hands than you will play through. But you still have to ante each hand.
In any case, chances are, you will not win a lot of money of money at poker. In fact, the odds are hugely in favor of your losing. This is not pessimistic loser-talk. It is a statistical fact.
If you successfully count cards at Blackjack, against a casino, you will statistically win money over a period of time. This is because the rules remain pretty much static. How much you win per hour will probably determine whether or not you will quit your day job and become a professional card counter.
If you play poker at a casino, (or in a private game), and happen to find a bunch of rubes that you can clean out on a regular basis, you may 'win' a few bucks. But the players will change. You will eventually find that you are the 'rube'. If you don't think this will happen to you, you're not alone.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
How To Fix Vegas...
As stated in a previous post, I believe that most of the economic problems facing Vegas casinos today were brought on by themselves, mostly by being blind to the looming disaster of the floor falling out of the economy. Incredible speculation on fantastic new projects and a belief that growth would continue accelerating forever turned out to be an arrogance that is killing not only the resorts' balance sheets, but most unfortunately, the jobs of the hapless casino employees.
Where have all the tourists gone?
This is my solution to pull the Vegas economy out of its' tailspin:
1) It's the stupid, gambling. Gambling was the original reason for existence here. Yes, the countryside is lousy with Indian casinos, but by and large, compared to Vegas, they SUCK. Better and more table games, with better rules than the Indian casinos (not a difficult goal), and better sports books will bring gamblers back to Vegas. And put less emphasis on the 'Players Cards'. Most people like to have their play tracked for comps, but no one likes the idea of 'Big Brother' recording their every move. Part of the allure of 'old-time' Vegas was the perception of anonymity.
2) Put less emphasis on the 'club scene'. Plenty of money is being made off the 'young rubes' who are brainwashed into thinking that the very act of spending a lot in the newest, hippest, club equates to having a good time. But this is a fickle crowd that will be back in LA as soon as the newest, hippest joint opens there. And these people for the most part are not in Vegas to gamble.
3) Stop trying to dazzle people with marble bathtubs, solid gold toilets, and other disgustingly pretentious 'amenities'. Please. And this leads to my last point:
4) Give Good Value. I (and a LOT of other people) go to Vegas, not to spread my buttocks on a velvet covered settee in a $500. a night suite at the Wynn, but to have a good time at a good casino, with great table games; enjoy excellent food at fair prices (it doesn't have to be prepared by a chef that has a TV show); relax in a comfortable room that I will spend very little time in; and maybe take in a reasonably priced show.
Where have all the tourists gone?
This is my solution to pull the Vegas economy out of its' tailspin:
1) It's the stupid, gambling. Gambling was the original reason for existence here. Yes, the countryside is lousy with Indian casinos, but by and large, compared to Vegas, they SUCK. Better and more table games, with better rules than the Indian casinos (not a difficult goal), and better sports books will bring gamblers back to Vegas. And put less emphasis on the 'Players Cards'. Most people like to have their play tracked for comps, but no one likes the idea of 'Big Brother' recording their every move. Part of the allure of 'old-time' Vegas was the perception of anonymity.
2) Put less emphasis on the 'club scene'. Plenty of money is being made off the 'young rubes' who are brainwashed into thinking that the very act of spending a lot in the newest, hippest, club equates to having a good time. But this is a fickle crowd that will be back in LA as soon as the newest, hippest joint opens there. And these people for the most part are not in Vegas to gamble.
3) Stop trying to dazzle people with marble bathtubs, solid gold toilets, and other disgustingly pretentious 'amenities'. Please. And this leads to my last point:
4) Give Good Value. I (and a LOT of other people) go to Vegas, not to spread my buttocks on a velvet covered settee in a $500. a night suite at the Wynn, but to have a good time at a good casino, with great table games; enjoy excellent food at fair prices (it doesn't have to be prepared by a chef that has a TV show); relax in a comfortable room that I will spend very little time in; and maybe take in a reasonably priced show.
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